Scotland could need six World Cup results to qualify for knockout stage
Scotland are on the brink of being eliminated from the 2026 World Cup.
Scotland are on the brink of being knocked out of the 2026 World Cup after the latest set of group stage results – but it isn’t all over just yet.
Thursday’s games brought about a nightmare scenario for Scotland fans, with Sweden, Ecuador and Paraguay all securing their place in the round of 32 as the highest-ranked third-placed teams.
Sweden drew 1-1 with Japan, while Ecuador beat Germany 2-1 and Paraguay held Australia to a 0-0 stalemate.
The results mean all three teams moved on to four points, leapfrogging Scotland in the third-placed rankings.
Steve Clarke’s side now occupy the eighth and final qualification spot out of the 12 third-placed teams – but all the teams behind them still have to play their final group fixture.
While Clarke received heavy criticism for stating ‘I think we’re going home’ after Scotland’s 3-0 defeat to Brazil consigned them to third place in Group C with three points, his fears look almost certainly as if they will come true in the coming hours or days.
Here is what Scotland need to happen to secure an unlikely passage through to the round of 32.
Scotland World Cup permutations explained
Out of the remaining six groups that still have matches to play, there are six matches in particular that could yet impact Scotland’s chances of making it through.
The first is in Group G, where Belgium currently occupy third place with two points.
It is in the Egypt versus Iran game where all attention needs to be focused, as if Egypt beat Iran, the latter will end up on two points.
Scotland would then require a win for either side in the Belgium versus New Zealand fixture.
In Group H, the equation is more simple, as Spain need to beat Uruguay for Uruguay to finish third on two points. Any other outcome would mean the relevant third-placed team – either Uruguay or Cape Verde – would have more points or a better goal difference than Scotland.
Then it’s on to Group I, where the equation is again simple. With France and Norway already safely through on six points, Scotland need the fixture between Senegal and Iraq to be a draw. Both teams would then finish on one point.
Alternatively, a victory for Iraq by no more than two goals would also benefit Scotland.
In Group J, with Argentina already guaranteed to top the group and Jordan eliminated, Austria and Algeria will battle it out for second place.
There are a few more permutations involved in this fixture, as both nations currently have a better goal difference than Scotland. If Austria beat Algeria by two goals, the latter cannot overtake Scotland in the table. Conversely, if Algeria beat Austria by four goals, that will also be enough for Steve Clarke’s side.
In Group K, DR Congo must not win their final fixture against Uzbekistan in order for Scotland to stay ahead of them in the third-placed table. Uzbekistan can win the match, but cannot win by more than three goals.
And finally, in Group L, Scotland require Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals in their final group fixture.
All in all, the permutations put into perspective just how unlikely it is that Scotland will manage to get over the line, with the fact that their goal difference is minus three, as well as the fact that they managed just one goal in Group C, putting them at a huge disadvantage.
But there is at least a slight chance – even if, according to Opta, that chance stands at just 5.26 per cent ahead of Friday’s matches.
