Scotland’s World Cup dream is still alive—but only just.
Steve Clarke’s side finished third in Group C after defeats to Morocco and Brazil, leaving them with three points and a goal difference of -3.
The Tartan Army now face an anxious wait as they rely on other results to determine whether they can sneak into the Round of 32 as one of the tournament’s eight best third-placed teams.
According to Opta, Scotland’s chances of qualifying stand at just 5.26%.
1. Egypt Must Beat Iran
The first result Scotland need comes in Group G.
If Egypt defeat Iran, Iran will remain on just two points.
Scotland would then need either Belgium or New Zealand to win their meeting, ensuring the third-placed side in the group finishes behind the Scots.
2. Spain Must Beat Uruguay
Group H is much simpler.
Scotland need Spain to beat Uruguay.
That would leave Uruguay in third place on just two points, meaning they could not overtake Scotland in the third-placed standings.
Any other result would almost certainly eliminate Steve Clarke’s side.
3. Senegal vs Iraq Must End in a Draw
Group I offers another opportunity.
France and Norway have already secured qualification, meaning the battle is for third place.
A draw between Senegal and Iraq would leave both teams on one point, keeping Scotland comfortably ahead.
Alternatively, an Iraq victory by no more than two goals would also work in Scotland’s favour.
4. Austria Must Beat Algeria by Two Goals (Or Algeria Must Win by Four)
Group J is one of the most complicated.
Both Austria and Algeria currently have a superior goal difference to Scotland.
If Austria win by at least two goals, Algeria would drop below Scotland.
Alternatively, if Algeria somehow win by four or more goals, Austria would become the team dropping below the Scots.
5. DR Congo Must Not Beat Uzbekistan
Scotland will also have one eye on Group K.
DR Congo cannot defeat Uzbekistan if Scotland are to remain ahead of them in the third-placed rankings.
An Uzbekistan win or a draw would suit the Tartan Army perfectly.
6. Ghana Must Beat Croatia by Three Goals
The final result Scotland need comes in Group L.
Ghana must beat Croatia by at least three goals.
That would push Croatia below Scotland on goal difference.
There is one unlikely complication: if Panama also beat England, Croatia could still avoid finishing third, creating another twist in the qualification race.
The Odds
While the qualification path still exists, it is an incredibly difficult one.
Scotland’s goal difference of -3 and just one goal scored during the group stage leave them at a major disadvantage compared to most of the other third-placed teams.
According to Opta, the Tartan Army have only a 5.26% chance of reaching the knockout stages.
The Bottom Line
Scotland’s fate is no longer in their own hands.
Steve Clarke’s side need six key results to fall their way if they are to reach the World Cup knockout stages.
The odds are slim—but as football has shown time and again, stranger things have happened.
